97th Annual Oscars Picks from R-Rated Movie Club
What should win, what will win, and your thoughts, as well!
The Oscars are on March 2, 2025 and here are my picks…
I enjoyed making my Oscar predictions last year and I’m back for the 97th Academy Awards in 2025. Thank you, everyone, for reading and supporting this fun, creative project. I’d love to know your picks in the comments. I saw nearly everything nominated this year, including all 10 Best Picture nominees, and I feel like I have a relatively informed opinion for this year’s picks.
The Academy Awards website lists all of the nominees by name, plus how to watch live on ABC, Hulu, Tubi, and other channels and platforms, on Sunday, March 2 at 6:00pm Central. If you want to see if a movie is in theaters, streaming, or for rent, look it up at JustWatch.com. Get your Oscar ballot ready and join me on Substack for a live chat during the Oscars this year!
MOVIE KEY:
* I didn’t see this.
Italics – My “Should Win” pick.
Bold – My “Will Win” pick.
Bold Italics - My “Should and Will Win” pick.
CAPS - Winner (will update live during the Oscars on March 2, 2025)
And the nominees are…
Because R-Rated Movie Club is a written newsletter, let’s start with celebrating how all good movies start: good writing!
Best Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown by James Mangold and Jay Cocks
Conclave by Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez by Jacques Audiard; in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi
Nickel Boys by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield *
My Take: I think we’re about to see a good movie like A Complete Unknown by and large get the shut-out, along with Emilia Pérez. Here, it’s the riveting Conclave which fills every moment with well-written dialogue, well-written silence, and what I’m sure is well-written stage direction to link them together. I haven’t read any of these scripts, but I’ve experienced the end results of most, and Conclave impresses.
Should Win: Conclave
Will Win: Conclave
Did Win: CONCLAVE
Best Original Screenplay
Anora by Sean Baker
The Brutalist by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain by Jesse Eisenberg
September 5 by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David
The Substance by Coralie Fargeat
My Take: Wow, some great scripts here, with wonderfully gripping concepts. Iut’s hard to know as a viewer how much of Anora is word for word the script vs. improvisation. I thought the face-paced interplay between characters in September 5 was brilliant. And wow, The Substance goes there, and it all starts with the script. I think, though, it will be A Real Pain that takes the Oscar. There are many nominated movies this year with war as a backdrop or about how people overcome religious and culture difference. Here, two young cousins wrestle with who they are as people, as relatives, as Jews, and their reflections are very real. A great, relatable script by Jesse Eisenberg.
Should Win: A Real Pain
Will Win: A Real Pain
Did Win: ANORA
Pen to paper is as much “writing” as writing gets. But there are a few other ways that movies are “written,” so let’s move on to some of these categories.
Best Film Editing
Anora - Sean Baker
The Brutalist - David Jancso
Conclave - Nick Emerson
Emilia Pérez - Juliette Welfling
Wicked - Myron Kerstein
My Take: Finding a way to tell the tale of Anora with handheld, shaky camera and chaotic, buzzing energy relies on great editing. While the other nominees are chopped well, I think this one succeeds the most. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Conclave takes it because it’s well-done, or Emilia Pérez because people mistake 10,000 jump-cuts for editing.
Should Win: Anora
Will Win: Anora
Did Win: ANORA
Best Cinematography
The Brutalist - Lol Crawley
Dune Part Two - Greig Fraser
Emilia Pérez - Paul Guilhaume
Maria - Ed Lachman
Nosferatu - Jarin Blaschke
My Take: This is where we may start to see Dune Part Two take several technical awards but miss out in the Best Picture category (Denis Villeneuve was already left out of the Director category). It is one of the most beautiful films of the year. I don’t care if Gregg Fraser already won a cinematography Oscar for Dune Part One. Give the man a matching set!
Should Win: Dune Part Two
Will Win: Dune Part Two
Did Win: The Brutalist
Best Production Design
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
My Take: Sorry, Wicked fans, but as much as I found this film a pleasant surprise, it is clearly a green screen fest. Meanwhile, every inch of Conclave felt very real. A world impeccably recreated in every detail. I can see The Brutalist taking this, too, simply for the sheer majesty of the construction and architectural pieces. Of course, you know me: if Dune Part One won it in 2021, I want to see them win it again for Dune Part Two from 2024. So, more Dune!
Should Win: Dune Part Two
Will Win: Conclave
Did Win: WICKED
Now let’s dive into more of the nuance of what we see and what we hear in movies.
Best Stunt Work
Oops, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences still doesn’t have this critical category. And I’ll go ahead and use my little platform to be critical about that. Here are my nominees and picks for this missing category, all based on movies that I actually saw:
Dune Part Two | All Those Knife Fights!
Civil War | All Those Gun Fights!
Deadpool & Wolverine | All Those Claw Fights!
Strange Darling | All Those Truck Fights!
The Substance | All Those Fist Fights!
My Take: Look, the fact that Tom Cruise may die any day from a Mission: Impossible stunt when there isn’t even an award should tell you how important this is!
Should Win: Anybody!
Will Win: Nobody…
Best Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus - Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Mahan
Better Man - Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs *
Dune Part Two - Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke
Wicked - Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould
My Take: I don’t have interest in Better Man, which I’ve heard is just plain weird, and I haven’t made the time for Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (which is just plain silly). I thought the planet and its asteroid rings were absolutely gorgeous in Alien: Romulus (they looked just plain real!) but Wicked gives off green screen vibes in every shot. It’s Dune Part Two that makes the fantastic look real. Love it.
Should Win: Dune Part Two
Will Win: Dune Part Two
Did Win: DUNE PART TWO
Best Sound
A Complete Unknown
Dune Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
My Take: It’s rare to find an animated film in this category, and I will say The Wild Robot impresses. But it’s even more rare to find two Timothée Chalamet films in this category, and they’re giving each other a run for their money! While I’d say I’d love Dune Part Two to repeat its award like Dune Part One, I think this may be the way the Academy celebrates the music of A Complete Unknown, since it’s not up for Original Score or Original Song.
Should Win: Dune Part Two
Will Win: A Complete Unknown
Did Win: DUNE PART TWO
Best Costume Design
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II *
Nosferatu
Wicked
My Take: Yes, it’s true, I just didn’t quite get to Gladiator II yet. We kept meaning to, but we didn’t. The costumes look to be on par (and sometimes the same as) the original Gladiator, which took home Best Costume Design for the 2000 crop. I did see the rest, and they were all impressive. It’s possible that Wicked will win, but I think Conclave sweeps in to nab it with its brilliantly real and lived-in world.
Should Win: Conclave
Will Win: Conclave
Did Win: WICKED
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
A Different Man *
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
My Take: The Substance is all about the makeup and hairstyling, from the beautiful to the grotesque and every step in-between. Because of that variety, I think it not only will win, it deserves to win. I could maybe see Wicked taking it, though Count Orlak in Nosferatu certainly has the one-two combo punch of a makeup face and a delightful ten-gallon moustache (twenty-gallon, when soaked with innocent blood!).
Should Win: The Substance
Will Win: The Substance
Did Win: WICKED
One of my favorite parts of any movie is good music. Even a bad movie can have good music! This year, it seems to me we have good music for good movies in these two categories…
Best Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
My Take: While I was not enamored of The Brutalist, I thought it had an effective score. But I think the Academy will give the Oscar to Wicked because, though it didn’t have any original songs to be nominated, they will want to acknowledge its music in the one way possible. We may see Stephen Schwartz receive his 4th Oscar.
Should Win: The Brutalist
Will Win: Wicked
Did Win: THE BRUTALIST
Best Original Song
El Mal | Emilia Pérez
The Journey | The Six Triple Eight *
Like A Bird | Sing Sing *
Mi Camino | Emilia Pérez
Never Too Late | Elton John: Never Too Late *
My Take: I didn’t really get much from the music of Emilia Pérez, which is the only film of these 4 nominees I’ve seen. Gladly, all 5 songs are available to experience on YouTube and from what I heard, it was H.E.R. singing The Journey from The Six Tripe Eight that moved me the most. I prefer the Selena Gomez song from Emilia Pérez, but I think the Zoe Saldaña song will win because of the dancing involved in its scene.
Should Win: The Journey from The Six Triple Eight
Will Win: El Mal from Emilia Pérez
Did Win: EL MAL from Emilia Pérez
And now… ACTING!
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro | A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande | Wicked
Felicity Jones | The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini | Conclave
Zoe Saldaña | Emilia Pérez
My Take: I thought everyone did well in their role. The big buzz is on Zoe Saldaña as the one standout remaining from Emilia Pérez during voting season, and if she gets it, I’m more than happy with that. I’ll also say, Ariana Grande shocked me with how good she was in Wicked, and though there could be controversy over her winning as a seasoned performer but green actor, I could see that happening, too.
Should Win: Ariana Grande
Will Win: Zoe Saldaña
Did Win: ZOE SALDAÑA
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo | Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón | Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison | Anora
Demi Moore | The Substance
Fernanda Torres | I'm Still Here / Ainda Estou Aqui
My Take: It’s Demi. Yes, lots of great buzz for Mikey Madison in the title role of Anora. And yes, Fernanda Torres displayed a commanding, matriarchal performance in I’m Still Here. But it’s Demi Moore who grips every second she’s on screen in The Substance, pulling you close, and whispering to you, “Even when I’m not here, I’m here.” The role of a lifetime. Well done, Demi!
Should Win: Demi Moore
Will Win: Demi Moore
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov | Anora
Kieran Culkin | A Real Pain
Edward Norton | A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce | The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong | The Apprentice *
My Take: The accolades for Guy Pearce as Harrison Lee Van Buren Sr. (in his first Oscar-nominated performance, believe it or not!) are deserved. And Edward Norton is a delight as Pete Seeger! I found myself deep in the love-hate inner relationship with Kieran Culkin’s emotional Benji Kaplan and it works, it works, it works. He’s winning all over the place; what’s one more measly award?!
Should Win: Kieran Culkin
Will Win: Kieran Culkin
Did Win: KIERAN CULKIN
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody | The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet | A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo | Sing Sing *
Ralph Fiennes | Conclave
Sebastian Stan | The Apprentice *
My Take: People seem to be giving Timothée Chalamet a tough time for being outwardly obviously desirous to win. But you know what? Whatever. He’s great, and he’s great in a great role. I think he’ll win. That said, wow, was I impressed by Ralph Fiennes in Conclave. I’m not keen on the other tough time people give older actors for winning a “career Oscar.” Folks, just let ‘em win and be happy for them!
Should Win: Ralph Fiennes
Will Win: Timothée Chalamet
Did Win: ADRIEN BRODY
Best Directing
Sean Baker | Anora
Brady Corbet | The Brutalist
James Mangold | A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard | Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat | The Substance
My Take: While I don’t think she’ll win the Oscar as a writer, I do think Coralie Fargeat will take it home as a director. She is both for The Subtance, and the directing award acknowledges her entire vision of script, mise-en-scene, imagery, and imagination. No one else comes close in this category, for my money. (Maybe that’s because Denis Villeneuve got the shut-out here for Dune Part Two).
Should Win: Coralie Fargeat
Will Win: Coralie Fargeat
DID WIN: SEAN BAKER
All of those categories are for aspects of filmmaking. Writing, camera, mise-en-scène, acting, directing. All movies need a bit of each of these. Now, it’s time to think of the movies as a whole. What follows are categories of complete films themselves.
Best Documentary Short Film
Death by Numbers | USA, English
I Am Ready, Warden | USA, English
Incident | USA , English
Instruments of a Beating Heart | Japan, Japanese
The Only Girl in the Orchestra | USA, English
My Take: You can read my rankings of all five nominees here:
Should Win: I Am Ready, Warden
Will Win: Incident
Did Win: THE ONLY GIRL IN THE ORCHESTRA
Best Documentary Feature Film
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War *
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat *
Sugarcane
My Take: I didn’t get to Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, nor can I find a way to watch Porcelain War. I think the prescient subject matter lifted up - and the harrowing way it’s lifted up, indeed - by No Other Land may bring it the win. If the complex politics of the devastating situation locks it out, I can fully recommend Sugarcane and here, I give it to Black Box Diaries, if anything for one of the most satisfying endings in cinema history.
Should Win: Black Box Diaries
Will Win: Black Box Diaries (unless No Other Land pushes through politics)
DID WIN: NO OTHER LAND
Best Animated Short Film
Beautiful Men | Belgium/France/Netherlands, Flemish, Dutch, Turkish, English
In the Shadow of the Cypress | Iran, no dialogue
Magic Candies | Japan, Japanese
Wander to Wonder | Netherlands/Belgium/France/UK, English
Yuck! | France, French
My Take: You can read my rankings of all five nominees here:
Should Win: Magic Candies
Will Win: Yuck!
Did Win: IN THE SHADOW OF THE CYPRESS
Best Animated Feature Film
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
My Take: Sad to say, I enjoyed Wallace & Gromit a lot more 20+ years ago when I wasn’t weary of the same plot over and again: Wallace invents something that goes haywire but he doesn’t listen to Gromit’s warnings until it’s too late. I’m glad that Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl is nominated, but it’s for the achievement in stop motion animation, not the story.
Memoir of a Snail was fascinating and truly I love where they took Riley and the emotions in Inside Out 2. But the greatest horse race showdown of the entire 97th Academy Awards is between Flow and The Wild Robot.
I laughed and cried my way through both, and when I think of The Wild Robot, I get the biggest smile on my face. If they keep making them, I’m there. But the one that gets the slight edge, the one that made me contemplate life just a tad more, the one that stirred mystery that keeps me wondering, is Flow. I think the Academy will feel something similar, and they’ll reward a small international animation studio for pulling at our heart strings in deeply surprising ways. Dear Reader, both are worth your time!
Should Win: Flow
Will Win: Flow
Did Win: FLOW
Best Live Action Short Film
A Lien | USA, English
Anuja | USA, Hindi
I’m Not a Robot | Belgium/Netherlands, Dutch
The Last Ranger | South Africa, Xhosa
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent | Croatia, Croatian
My Take: You can read my rankings of all five nominees here:
Should Win: The Men Who Could Not Remain Silent
Will Win: A Lien
Did Win: I’M NOT A ROBOT
Best International Feature Film
I'm Still Here / Ainda Estou Aqui (Brazil)
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark) *
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany) *
Flow (Latvia)
My Take: Ooh, this one is nearly as tricky as Best Animated Feature Film. We have 3 films with crossover. Flow is also up for Best Animated Feature Film, where it’s in a dead heat with The Wild Robot. Then you have Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here, both up for Best Picture. Unless there’s a huge surprise in Best Animated Feature, we won’t see this award go to Flow. And I get the vibe, warranted or not, that the buzz around Emilia Pérez faded fast. Either way, it doesn’t matter, because I’m Still Here is a phenomenal film. I’m afraid I just didn’t get to The Girl with the Needle or The Seed of the Sacred Fig in time, though they’re on Mubi and rent-to-stream, respectively.
It’s in my top 5 of the year and while I don’t see it taking the big prize the way Korean-language Parasite (2019), it is a serious contender here. Instead, I think it will end up like All Quiet on the Western Front (2022) and The Zone of Interest (2023): mesmerizing films nominated for Best International and Best Picture. This year, I think I’m Still Here will win Best International Film and it deserves it.
Should Win: I'm Still Here / Ainda Estou Aqui
Will Win: I'm Still Here / Ainda Estou Aqui
And of course, the big one…
Best Picture - MY Nominees! (with 5-Star, 1-Word Reviews!)
The Wild Robot | 5/5 “Family!”
Strange Darling | 5/5 “Shock!”
Dune Part Two | 5/5 “Muad’Dib!” Is that two words? Only Shai Halud can judge me!
Inside Out 2 | 4.5/5 “Truth!”
Flow | 5/5 “Hope!”
The Substance | 5/5 “Captivating!”
A Real Pain | 4/5 “Painful!”
A Complete Unknown | 4/5 “Mumbly!”
Conclave | “Enthralling!”
I’m Still Here / Ainda Estou Aqui | 4.5/5 “Beautiful!”
My Take: All of my favorite films of 2024 were nominated for an Oscar except for my very favorite: Strange Darling. I will tell you NOTHING but this: please TRUST me, and go in COLD.
Should Win: Strange Darling was my favorite movie of the year.
Will Win: Conclave has the best chance from my persona list.
Best Picture - ACTUAL Nominees! (with 5-Star, 1-Word Reviews!)
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I'm Still Here / Ainda Estou Aqui
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
My Take: I saw all 10 nominees this year and liked most of them quite a bit.
Emilia Pérez just wasn’t for me, sorry. And I was not as enamored of The Brutalist as so many others are, though I think it may win overall. The performances, soundtrack, and cinematography are there, but not as much for the story. Of these two, The Brutalist is my pick.
The middle of the pack are well-made and are elevated here with good reasons. Great acting (Anora, A Complete Unknown), creative cinematography (Nickel Boys), moving music (Wicked). Of these five, Anora is my top pick.
I’m Still Here is one of my favorites of the year, but I think it’s a lock for Best International Film.
That leaves my top three.
Three cheers to the Academy for two science fiction genre films up for Best Picture: Dune Part Two and The Substance. Both will garner repeat viewings from me for years to come. Simply put, Conclave won me over. I was riveted from start to finish. Can a movie like this even take Best Picture anymore?
I’ve decided that while The Brutalist (or Anora) may win, I would give Best Picture to any of my top three for separate reasons. Dune Part Two, for the Dune saga overall. The Substance for the mesmerizing imagination. Conclave for a mystery that could only have been made 10% better if Columbo had been there (“Eh, just one more question, Monsignor…”).
I wish Conclave or Dune Part Two would win. Between those two, it will be Conclave. But between the ten, I think The Brutalist will win.
Should Win: Dune Part Two
Actually Could-Should Win: Conclave, The Substance
Will Win: The Brutalist
Did Win: ANORA
That’s all, Dear Reader! Wow, do I hope a bunch of you open your emails because this took a while to write! Looking forward to hearing what you think about my picks and your picks in the comments, and join me on Substack on March 2, 2025 at 6:00pm Central as I live chat the Oscars. Thanks for reading!
And now… “What a weird ceremony!”
I really enjoyed this! I think Fargeat has a real shot at original screenplay bc her screenwriting is really just SO good, and it’s a very low-dialogue film with lots of action description.
That's a good point. I haven't read any of these scripts but I'd be curious to see how all of the silent stage direction is handled.