96th Annual Oscars Picks from R-Rated Movie Club
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The Oscars are tonight! Here are my picks…
I’ve never written something in-depth for the Oscars before. Then again, I’ve never had a platform about movies like R-Rated Movie Club before. Thank you to everyone who makes this platform possible! I have a day off and in an effort to actually take it off instead of do some work at home instead (oh, how easy it is to slip into that!), I’ve taken up the task of writing about my picks for the 96th Academy Awards. I hope you enjoy, and I’d love to hear what you think in the comments!
Up front, I didn’t see everything this year. Some I didn’t know about, some didn’t enter my zone of interest, and some I just ran out of time or they ran out of the theater before I had the chance. That said, I did end up seeing all 10 Best Picture nominees, which I don’t think has ever happened for me since they increased the category from 5.
I was pleasantly surprised to see just how many nominees are available to me on the various streaming platforms. Unfortunately, I just didn’t learn that in time for this essay. That may impact my picks, but that’s the way it goes.
I never see all of the nominees, but I think it’s important to be honest right away because I’m going to rate some categories simply based on the films I saw and/or what I’ve heard about. In that way, I suppose it’s a lot like voting for a politician, n’est-ce pas? Okay, I’ll leave the (faith and) politics to the amazing writers of A Public Witness and get to the Oscars…
Please let me know your thoughts in the comments, and steer on over to my friends at Working Title and Nanogram for more Oscar analysis on Substack!
KEY:
* I actually saw this.
+ I honestly haven’t even heard of this.
Italics – This is my “Should Win” pick.
Bold – This is my “Will Win” pick.
Because R-Rated Movie Club is a written newsletter, let’s start with celebrating how all good movies start: good writing!
Best Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction *
Barbie *
Oppenheimer *
Poor Things *
The Zone of Interest *
My Take: There is controversy over whether Barbie should be considered “adapted” or “original,” and I think in some ways that may play to its advantage. Right away, I wonder if politics will play a role. What I mean is, sometimes it’s about the best, and sometimes it’s about honoring over here because we can’t honor over there, or to make up for another lack of honor over here, that sort of thing. Both Greta Gerwig and Margo Robie are conspicuously absent for director and actress nods, and no matter how good the other screenplays are, I think it quite possible Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach take home Oscar gold through writing. That leaves Academy voters to feel good about going that route so they can vote for Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon in other areas. Please don’t take that as me saying Barbie doesn’t deserve it, because it does. It’s my pick! All of those politics aside, Barbie could have gone many, many ways, and it absolutely could not have succeeded like it did without amazing writing by two of my favorite screenwriters
. I both hope and think it will win.
Should Win: Barbie
Will Win: Barbie
Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall *
The Holdovers *
Maestro *
May December
Past Lives *
My Take: The Holdovers was right up my alley. I haven’t seen all of the rest, but I know what I like and wow, did I love this. I found myself squealing and clapping - yes, squealing and clapping - all throughout the movie. The writing is all at once clever while also grounded. I’m not familiar with all of David Hemingson’s extensive (mostly TV) writing resume, but this is clearly a breakout piece of writing. The Holdovers is my pick for both “should” and “will.”
Should Win: The Holdovers
Will Win: The Holdovers
Pen to paper is as much “writing” as writing gets. But there are a few other ways that movies are “written,” so let’s move on to some of these categories.
Best Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall *
The Holdovers *
Killers of the Flower Moon *
Oppenheimer *
Poor Things *
My Take: I saw 4 out of 5 and while the editing for all of them is wonderful, one takes the cake. Of all of the things I appreciated the most about Oppenheimer, it is its editing. I’ve written an essay that included a deep dive thought about it. I’m still shopping that around a little because the thought that someone might want to publish it is still a hope! If not, I’ll post it here. I’ll just say this: the story of Oppenheimer is told in its editing, through and through. I think it should win, and I think it will win.
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Best Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon *
Maestro *
Oppenheimer *
Poor Things *
My Take: Killers of the Flower Moon was beautiful to look at, if hard to watch at times. After shooting Brokeback Mountain, it’s clear Rodrigo Pietro knows how to photograph the land in ways that move you. The land was at the heart of this story. I was moved, and this is my pick. However, I think Oppenheimer is going to take this one. Hoyte Van Hoytema’s work is just too beautiful here, and his cinematography resume shows this: Nope, Interstellar, Dunkirk, Spectre, Let the Right One In. These are good looking movies!
Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Best Production Design
Barbie *
Killers of the Flower Moon *
Napoleon *
Oppenheimer *
Poor Things *
My Take: Hey! My first category where I’ve seen all of the nominees! I mean, I picked the order for this essay, but still, I actually saw all five of these so I can offer not just an informed opinion, but a very informed opinion! I don’t have all the past winners in front of me, but I feel like the Academy likes to reward well-done period dramas when it comes to production design, so my gut tells me Killers of the Flower Moon will win because it is 1919, through and through. I hope Barbie wins, though, because such carefully-crafted world-building is on display in Barbieland. It is a loving homage and a satire. Toss in some well-done production value Easter Eggs (those skates!) and it truly works.
Should Win: Barbie
Will Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Now let’s dive into more of the nuance of what we see and what we hear in movies.
Best Stunt Work
Oops, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences still doesn’t have this critical category. And I’ll go ahead and use my little platform to be critical about that. Here are my nominees and picks for this missing category, all based on movies that I actually saw:
Bottoms *
Cocaine Bear *
Godzilla Minus One *
John Wick 4 *
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One *
My Take: The Mission: Impossible movies are now basically 2 hours worth of content sandwiched around an amazing 10-minute stunt or two, and if Best Stunt Work was a category, I’m sure it would win. But I’ll say this: John Wick 4 was my first John Wick movie, believe it or not, and wow, I was impressed.
Shoulda Woulda Win: John Wick 4
Coulda Woulda Win: Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
I mean, c’mon. Sacré Coeur staircase scene. C’mon.
Best Visual Effects
The Creator *
Godzilla Minus One *
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 *
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One *
Napoleon *
My Take: I found the mere(!) $80 million reported budget for The Creator to be an incredible ROI. Every penny is on the screen with believable special effects depicting the future. The right creatives can do a lot with a little. Impressive as that was, I was even more impressed by the mere mere $12 million reported budget for Godzilla Minus One. Talk about every yen on the screen. I know there are opinions out there about whether the crew was overworked or not, but the overwhelming vibe out there is Takashi Yamazaki treated his crew well and they made the impossible look easy.
Should Win: Godzilla Minus One
Will Win: The Creator (but I very well could be pleasantly surprised!)
Best Sound
The Creator *
Maestro *
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One *
Oppenheimer *
The Zone of Interest *
My Take: The best use of sound in a movie about a giant explosion is silence. And if you’ve seen Oppenheimer, you know exactly what I’m talking about. I do think Maestro will get its fair share of votes, given that it’s about music which is about sound. I also think The Zone of Interest will get votes, as my understanding is its sound design is… haunting and necessary to the story. Make no mistake: Oppenheimer will take this one home, that’s for sure.
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Best Costume Design
Barbie *
Killers of the Flower Moon *
Napoleon *
Oppenheimer *
Poor Things *
My Take: Another category where I saw all of the nominees. They all have such a different costuming aesthetic. Three period pieces of different periods, plus a kinda-sorta period piece in a magical realism way (I mean Poor Things, not Barbie), plus a kinda-sorta period piece in a magical realism way (I mean Barbie, not Poor Things). Every nominee is worthy. I think Barbie should get it, but toss in a little politics and I think Poor Things takes home the statue here to at least make up a little for not taking home the statue elsewhere. We shall see.
Should Win: Barbie
Will Win: Poor Things
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda +
Maestro *
Oppenheimer *
Poor Things *
Society of the Snow +
My Take: Here’s my first category including nominees that I haven’t hard of (yes, I’ve looked them up for writing this essay, but that’s different. Sorry, Golda.). I’d say Maestro would win this because Bradley Cooper is transformed into Leonard Cohen at various points in his life and it always works, but it’s possible the flash of controversy around his makeup will make voters avoid it. My take is the Academy will award all of us for staring deeply into the crevasses of Willem Dafoe’s scarred face.
Should Win: Poor Things
Will Win: Poor Things
One of my favorite parts of any movie is good music. Even a bad movie can have good music! This year, it seems to me we have good music for good movies in these two categories…
Best Original Score
American Fiction *
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny *
Killers of the Flower Moon *
Oppenheimer *
Poor Things *
My Take: What would be better on Oscar night than 92-year-old eternal favorite John Williams take home one last Oscar after 54 nominations and 5 wins? Not much. But wow, Ludwig Göransson brought Oppenheimer something special with this string and bass-heavy score. It’s my hopeful pick and I think it’s favored to win. I’ll say of the 4 nominees I saw in this category, all 4 scores do tremendous world building and set the mood well. A good year for movie music!
Should Win: Oppenheimer
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Best Original Song
The Fire Inside – Flamin’ Hot (Missed the movie, listened to the song.)
I’m Just Ken – Barbie *
It Never Went Away – American Symphony (Missed the movie, listend to the song.)
Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) – Killers of the Flower Moon *
What Was I Made For? – Barbie *
My Take: While I didn’t see all of these movies, I did listen to all of the songs. I know context matters for the music, and that impacted my pick. See, I laughed and cried with wanton abandon during “I’m Just Ken.” I regret nothing. But “What Was I Made For” will win. And it deserves to win. Hope the votes don’t cancel each other out!
Should Win: “I’m Just Ken” - Barbie
Will Win: “What Was I Made For?” - Barbie
And now… ACTING!
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer *
Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
America Ferrera – Barbie *
Jodie Foster – Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers *
My Take: I learned way too late that Nyad is a Netflix film, so I could have seen it very easily. I still will. Given that both Jodie Foster and Annette Bening are nominated says a lot about their performances making it worth my while. But in the last few days of catching up on nominees, it became clear that picking and choosing would play a role. And once I saw Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers, it was a done deal. Her portrayal of Mary is amazing. She’s a well-rounded character and Randolph is a master here. I hope and think it’s in the bag.
Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening – Nyad
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon *
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall *
Carey Mulligan – Maestro *
Emma Stone – Poor Things *
My Take: Similar to backburnering Nyad after seeing The Holdovers, I felt the same way after seeing Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon. I will gladly admit that Emma Stone is an amazing actress who rose to the occasion of the challenging role of Bella Baxter in Poor Things, and I honestly cannot think of anyone else who could do what she did there. But Lily Gladstone carries her film. If we don’t believe her portrayal of Molly, the entire movie falls apart. Her performance is key, and I’m glad I got to see her in the theater. I hope she wins, and I think she’ll win.
Should Win: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Will Win: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon *
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer *
Ryan Gosling – Barbie *
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things *
My Take: I truly wish I’d taken my chance to see American Fiction. I coulda, and I didn’ta. But I willa, I promisa! I’m sure Sterling K. Brown is great. Going off what I did see, I’m going with Ryan Gosling in Barbie. Call it a dark horse long shot, but just like so many things with this movie that could have been a disaster, everyone found a way to make it work again and again. Ryan Gosling’s portrayal of Ken just plain works, and it works in a pleasantly surprising way. I expect De Niro to shine. I was glad to see Gosling shine. All of that said, I think politics will come into play here, and voters may say Robert Downey Jr. has “more than paid his dues,” and he’ll take home the statue.
Should Win: Ryan Gosling - Barbie
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper – Maestro *
Colman Domingo – Rustin
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers *
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer *
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
My Take: Bradley Cooper acts the heck outta Maestro. But I’m over the so-called “character piece” movie that can come off as a showcase for an actor as opposed to a compelling story. Sadly, that’s how Maestro came off to me. I think it’s quite possible that Cillian Murphy takes home his first Oscar for Oppenheimer. But I think it’s Paul Giamatti’s time. 20 years ago, his first collaboration with Alexander Payne was Sideways and he was tragically snubbed from the Best Actor category. Thomas Hayden Church and Virginia Madsen earned well-deserved Supporting nominations, but Giamatti was locked out. I saw the 5 Best Actor performances all in the theater that year and they were all good, but there’s not a lot of reason why Johnny Depp or Clint Eastwood were there but Paul Giamatti wasn’t. And if he had been, I think Jamie Foxx’s life would be different now. All the politics aside, Paul Giamattie embodies this character. Every single acting choice is riveting. I could not look away. I missed this in the theater and had to watch on Peacock and I didn’t even pick up my phone once. Paul Giamatti deserves to win, and I think he will.
Should Win: Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
Will Win: Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
Best Directing
Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall *
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon *
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer *
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things *
Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest *
My Take: In the showdown of Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon, I again think Oppenheimer’s popularity will help it win here. And, I think, Christopher Nolan is at a place in his career where he’s doing powerful bridge work between blockbuster crowdpleasers and riveting auteur thinkpieces. Awarding him for this crossover film that helped prop up the 2023 box office can do a lot to help Hollywood. I know a lot of that is politics, so I’ll add this: Nolan helmed this movie incredibly well. I’m not sure who else could’ve directed this movie and had the same impact. While I think he will win, I would actually give the Oscar to Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon. The tremendous lengths that this man went to for dignity and accuracy for what could otherwise be a terribly- if not full-on-harmfully-told story demonstrates a certain level of care about the craft of filmmaking as only Martin Scorsese could deliver. I don’t think he’ll get it, but he should.
Should Win: Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
Will Win: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
All of those categories are for aspects of filmmaking. Writing, camera, mise-en-scène, acting, directing. All movies need a bit of each of these. Now, it’s time to think of the movies as a whole. What follows are categories of complete films themselves.
Best Animated Feature Film
The Boy and the Heron *
Elemental *
Nimona *
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse *
My Take: There was a time when I saw this category as a Pixar guarantee. That has not always been the case, and as for this year, the nominated Pixar movie, Elemental, is the least interesting of the 4 out of 5 that I saw. Controversial take: The Boy and the Heron is beautiful but boring. Sorry, Studio Ghibli fanatics, this one was way too long. Nimona is a lot of fun, though its story stakes are a bit all over the place. Still, it has a lot of heart and great animation and comedy timing. But come on, Dear Reader, the clear winner here is Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Amazing. Spectacular. Sensational. Ultimate. Web of. Okay, those are all Spider-Man comic book titles. But they describe this movie! Yes, even “Web of!”
Should Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best Animated Short Film
Letter to a Pig +
Ninety-Five Senses *
Our Uniform *
Pachyderme *
WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
My Take: I found I was able to watch several of these on YouTube, though I couldn’t say whether they were there legitimately or not. I was glad to see 3 of them, and they were all powerful and well-made in their own right. If I went with just those I saw, I’d go with Ninety-Five Senses, but there’s enough buzz that even though I haven’t seen it in its entirety, I think WAR IS OVER! is taking home this statue.
Should Win: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Will Win: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Best Live Action Short Film
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar *
My Take: I’ve only seen one of these but the one I saw was an absolute delight. Never underestimate Wes Anderson. We can see that on full display with The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. It’s weird, just like any Roald Dahl Wes Anderson interesting film should be.
Should Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Best Documentary Feature Film
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
My Take: We finally reach the category where I haven’t seen a single nominee before the Oscars, so I’m going to go with the only one I’ve heard anything of substance about, The Eternal Memory. It sounds quite touching.
Should Win: The Eternal Memory (To be fair, I haven’t seen any of these.)
Will Win: The Eternal Memory
Best Documentary Short Film
The ABCs of Book Banning *
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop *
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó *
My Take: Streaming has changed the ability to see many categories, and this year I got to see several of the shot films in time for this year’s Oscars. My pick for the film with the premise precious to me and which moved me most was Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó, but wow I think it will be surprising if The Last Repair Shop doesn’t win. There is a lot of tremendous, universal appeal in that musical story. Powerful, worth your time.
Should Win: Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Will Win: The Last Repair Shop
Best International Feature Film
Io Capitano +
Perfect Days +
Society of the Snow +
The Teachers’ Lounge +
The Zone of Interest *
My Take: There was a time, I’m gonna call that time “I Am 22, Look How Smart I Am,” when I would’ve not just known but seen all of the international feature films. Alas, we are in a different time, I’m gonna call that time “I Am 44, Look How Busy I Am.” The only one I saw, and consequently the one I think will win, is The Zone of Interest. It was a tough yet powerful watch, but I think it has a guaranteed win here instead of Best Picture.
Should Win: The Zone of Interest
Will Win: The Zone of Interest
And of course, the big one…
Best Picture - MY Nominees! (with 5-Star, 1-Word Reviews!)
Anatomy of a Fall * 4.5/5 “Mesmerizing!”
A Haunting in Venice * 4.5/5 “Haunting!”
Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret. * 5/5 “Periodic!”
Barbie * 5/5 “Kenough!”
Godzilla Minus One * 5/5 “GRRRAAAAARRRNGH!!!”
The Holdovers * 5/5 “Delightful!”
Killers of the Flower Moon * 4.5/5 “Captivating!”
Oppenheimer * “Breakneck!”
Past Lives * “Passionate!”
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse *
My Take: If the 10 nominees were all made by me, it would be this above list. I would go back and forth between how Godzilla Minus One made me CARE so much about the HUMAN characters and how Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret. made me CARE so much about being a FATHER. Those two, plus The Holdovers, are my top three movies of 2023. And of the three, the one I’ve found myself being the biggest evangelist for is by far Godzilla Minus One. People gotta know!
Should Win: Should Win: Godzilla Minus One TIES with Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret.
Will Win: Godzilla Minus One, The Holdovers, and Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret. in a three-way tie. Godzilla, Paul Giamatti, and Abby Ryder Fortson all rush up to the stage, lock arms, and hold their trophies high!
Best Picture - ACTUAL Nominees! (with 5-Star, 1-Word Reviews!)
American Fiction * 4.0/5 “Biting!”
Anatomy of a Fall * 4.5/5 “Mesmerizing!”
Barbie * 5/5 “Kenough!”
The Holdovers * 5/5 “Delightful!”
Killers of the Flower Moon * 4.5/5 “Captivating!”
Maestro * - 2.5/5 “Acting!”
Oppenheimer * 4.5/5 “Breakneck!”
Past Lives * 4/5 “Passionate!”
Poor Things * 4/5 “Twisted!”
The Zone of Interest * 4/5 “Haunting!”
My Take: Wow, I saw all 10 this year, and they were all great! Well, Maestro is fine, but worthwhile. Not box office hits, I’m glad I took the time to watch American Fiction, Past Lives, The Zone of Interest, and Anatomy of a Fall. While all just brilliant, they’re just not going to win. In another year, I’d give it to Anatomy of a Fall. Wow.
Obviously, I saw Barbie, but it’s not going to win. Same with Poor Things, though I’m glad a movie like this was nominated. The biggest showdown buzz all year has been Oppenheimer vs. Killers of the Flower Moon. My recollection is this showdown was talked about pretty openly even before either came out, and definitely at least in the 2-3 months before Killers of the Flower Moon came out. And I don’t doubt that these 6+ hours worth of cinema are indeed the voting showdown of the year. I think the outright popularity of Oppenheimer will pull it through. And I enjoyed it very much, saw it in the theater twice, enjoyed it both times. I think it will get Best Picture and go out for In-and-Out on the way home.
But my favorite movie of the year on this list - the one that is in a run-across-the-finish-line-together-because-you’re-all-winners tie hand in hand with Godzilla Minus One and Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret. - my favorite movie of the year on this list is The Holdovers. I had so much fun. I think it’s quotable. I think it makes you think and feel. I think I will watch it frequently. It won’t win on Sunday, just in my heart.
Should Win: The Holdovers
Will Win: Oppenheimer
That’s all, Dear Reader! Wow, do I hope a bunch of you open your emails because this took a while to write! Looking forward to hearing what you think about my picks and your picks in the comments. Thanks for reading!
And now… A BONUS GODZILLA BOAT ATTACK!
"I was even more impressed by the mere mere $12 million reported budget for Godzilla Minus One."
WHAT?! Holy cow!
Great round up, Nate. I loved your fictional categories especially. :) I've only seen 5 of _your_ best picture nominees and 4 of the actual nominees, so I can't really make any cogent picks. I'm glad I've even seen that many.
And great tips on many of the shorts being available on YouTube or streaming. I'mma have to check them out.