98th Annual Oscars Picks and Giveaway from R-Rated Movie Club
What should win, what will win, and will YOU win?!
The Oscars are today, March 15, 2026. Leave your predictions in the comments, and join me on Substack for a live chat during the Oscars! Get your official Oscar ballot, watch live on ABC or Hulu on Sunday, March 15 at 6:00pm CDT. I saw 35 out of 50 nominated films, how did you do?
New for 2026: Giveaway!
Everyone who subscribes to R-Rated Movie Club before the end of tonight’s Oscars broadcast is automatically entered to win one Oscar-nominated movie in their choice of format (DVD, Blu-ray, 4K, or digital). One entrant will be randomly selected. I’ll notify the winner via the email address they use to subscribe. The winner has 72 hours to confirm receipt of the notification email. If they don’t respond in 72 hours, a new winner will be randomly selected and they have 72 hours to respond and so on. Subscribers are eligible to win once per calendar year. Many will be automatically entered. One will win. Good luck, and thanks for being here!
MOVIE KEY:
* Didn’t see it.
Italics - Should win!
Bold - Will win!
Bold Italics - Should AND will win!
CAPS - Winner (updated live during the Oscars)
And the nominees are…
R-Rated Movie Club is a newsletter written by a human. Let’s start by celebrating writing by humans!
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia, Screenplay by Will Tracy
Frankenstein, Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet, Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
One Battle after Another, Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams, Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Commentary: In a year when One Battle After Another and Sinners are, I’m pretty sure, neck and neck for Best Picture, I think both are strong contenders for their respective writing category. Perhaps voters who are torn for the top pick would gladly divide and conquer for the script. I’ll say, I have an aversion t narration, and that’s much of Train Dreams, and I would gladly see Bugonia win for its creativity.
Should Win: One Battle after Another
Will Win: One Battle after Another
Did Win: One Battle after Another
Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon, Written by Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident, Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators - Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
Marty Supreme, Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value, Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Sinners, Written by Ryan Coogler
Commentary: It also occurs to me voting for One Battle After Another and Sinners for their respective screenplays allows voters to award an Oscar to both Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler, as they both go head-to-head for Best Director. That’s two strong reasons to believe they’ll win. Otherwise, I thought the writing for Sentimental Value struck a good balance of humor, tragedy, and pathos.
Should Win: Sinners
Will Win: Sinners
Did Win: Sinners
Movies are “written” not just with pen and paper, but many media languages…
Best Film Editing
F1, Stephen Mirrione
Marty Supreme, Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
One Battle after Another, Andy Jurgensen
Sentimental Value, Olivier Bugge Coutté
Sinners, Michael P. Shawver
Commentary: How do you make fast cars look even faster? Editing. This is F1’s category to lose, and it won’t.
Should Win: F1
Will Win: F1
Did Win: One Battle After Another, Andy Jurgensen
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein, Dan Laustsen
Marty Supreme, Darius Khondji
One Battle after Another, Michael Bauman
Sinners, Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Train Dreams, Adolpho Veloso
Commentary: While I’m not a fan of narration, I am a fan of spectacular cinematography, and that’s Train Dreams. Every frame is a classic photograph. I think Sinners takes the lead for me because of the tremendous efforts made for great indoor and outdoor lighting, whereas Train Dreams uses essentially natural light for its mostly-outdoor settings. Hmm, unless it’s also artificially lit that well…
Should Win: Sinners
Will Win: Train Dreams
Did Win: Sinners, Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Best Production Design
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle after Another
Sinners
Commentary: All of these had tremendous sets and mise-en-scène that built something beautiful, but it’s Hamnet and Sinners for me. I have a preference for period pieces in this category (oh look, five easy period pieces!) and these two feel the most authentic. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such an accurate depiction of the world of Shakespeare in my life before Hamnet, it’s so lived-in, just wow. But Sinners really does a lot with its 1932 Mississippi setting, enough so that my kids commented on it. That is a primary thought as I enter my picks: my kids loved Sinners. They recognized and articulated its greatness while we were watching it. Says a lot to me.
Should Win: Hamnet
Will Win: Sinners
Did Win: Frankenstein
Movies are what we see and what we hear.
Best Stunt Work
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will debut it’s Best Achievement in Stunt Design in 2027. For now, let’s just say Tom Cruise yet again risked life and limb for yet another amazing stunt in Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning and if there was an award this year, I’d gladly give it to him. Dude coulda died, bro.
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash *
F1
Jurassic World Rebirth *
The Lost Bus *
Sinners
Commentary: Even though we’ve “seen it before,” I bet the latest Avatar takes it. While The Lost Bus was a little clunky, the fire effects were very impressive and it could be cool to award this film that definitely punched above its weight compared to the other four box office hits, even with director Paul Greengrass (The Bourne Identity) at the helm. Personally, I’d give it to F1 because they integrated visual effects so well that you likely couldn’t even tell what’s really there or not. That takes tremendous skill, and I value that.
Should Win: F1
Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Did Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Sound
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle after Another
Sinners
Sirāt *
Commentary: As fast cars look faster with good editing, loud cars sound louder with good sound. There’s no race on this one. F1 already crossed the finish line.
Should Win: F1
Will Win: F1
Did Win: F1
Best Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash *
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Commentary: I guess I have a lot to learn about how Costume Design works for a live action film that is nearly all computer animated like Avatar: Fire and Ash. The work in Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, and Sinners is all well-done, but Hamnet has the edge. There was country peasant costuming, London commoner costuming, London elite costuming, men, women, and children of different generations and status costuming, and of course, the brilliant and accurate costuming from the climactic staging of “Hamlet.” Every layer of costuming works here.
Should Win: Hamnet
Will Win: Hamnet
Did Win: Frankenstein
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Kokuho *
Sinners
The Smashing Machine *
The Ugly Stepsister
Commentary: One of my biggest deficiency categories, I’m afraid. My uninformed opinion gives this to Frankenstein because while it was good I do think it will fall short in the other categories, even the other technical categories. Makeup and hair are integral to the story, however. It’s not just about setting the mood or enhancing a character or depicting the period. This is a movie about eccentric people stitching together living dead people. Good makeup and hair are essential.
Should Win: Frankenstein
Will Win: Frankenstein
Did Win: Frankenstein
What’s a good movie without a good soundtrack?
Best Original Score
Bugonia, Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein, Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet, Max Richter
One Battle after Another, Jonny Greenwood
Sinners, Ludwig Goransson
Commentary: The only scores that I noticed enough to think, wow, I appreciate this music in the moment, are Hamnet and Sinners. I don’t think voters will miss the chance to make Oscar history by making the Oscars relevant to teenagers by giving gold to Golden from KPop Demon Hunters, so they’ll give the other powerful movie centered around powerful music the gold here, and that’s Sinners.
Should Win: Sinners
Will Win: Sinners
Did Win:
Best Original Song
Dear Me from Diane Warren: Relentless *
Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
I Lied To You from Sinners
Sweet Dreams Of Joy from Viva Verdi! *
Train Dreams from Train Dreams
Commentary: Didn’t see two of these. Didn’t need to see four of these. It’s all about that Pop, ‘bout that Pop. Can’t wait for the performance, either. Give Golden the gold!
Should Win: Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
Will Win: Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
Did Win: Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
And now… ACTING!
Best Casting (Brand-New Category!)
Hamnet, Nina Gold
Marty Supreme, Jennifer Venditti
One Battle after Another, Cassandra Kulukundis
The Secret Agent, Gabriel Domingues
Sinners, Francine Maisler
Commentary: As a brand-new category, with lots of overlap related to other longstanding acting categories, there’s not quite a consensus on how to weigh this award. Is it how the cast works together? Whether everyone fills their role well? How the casting director’s choices shine through on the screen? What if the director brought the star without auditions? Is it to think about the wide array of characters instead of star power? That’s an interesting possibility, because all of these are large ensemble cast films. I mean, could you even nominate Cast Away? Or Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? I think One Battle after Another will take it because it brings together non-actors, day actors, character actors, rising star up-and-comer actors, and outright movie stars and makes it work. Marty Supreme does this to a much less extent, though I’ve got to give it kudos for needing a Japanese cast and several US casts for different locations.
Should Win: One Battle after Another, Cassandra Kulukundis
Will Win: One Battle after Another, Cassandra Kulukundis
Did Win: One Battle after Another, Cassandra Kulukundis
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle after Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle after Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Commentary: I’m not sure if the Academy will agree with me that the amazing Delroy Lindo has had a spectacular career as a supporting character and not only should that be acknowledged, he also did well enough in this role to win. But that’s how I feel. I think Stellan Skarsgård takes it, and perhaps for similar reasons. Del Toro (1) and Penn (2) have both won enough that I don’t think voters will give them another over these other great performances.
Should Win: Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Will Win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Did Win: Sean Penn, One Battle after Another
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle after Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Commentary: I know all the buzz is on Leo striking gold a second time or Timothée striking gold finally, but I don’t think either happen. Good as he is in the role, Marty Supreme is too unlikeable and Chalamet was more compelling last year as Bob Dylan when he lost. Hawk was good but the movie was okay at best. Moura loses but his movie wins later. Leo is great, and he may win. But Michael B. Jordan played two characters (three, in a way) and he’s magnificent, all around. Give him the gold
Should Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Will Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Did Win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle after Another
Commentary: When great movies only get one nominations, that can bring some voting weight, and I think it will for Amy Madigan in Weapons. The Academy also has some recent history in awarding long acting careers that turn in a solid performance after decades in the biz (see Ke Huy Quan, from debuting as a kid as Short Round to winning for Everything Everywhere All at Once). Teyana Taylor was great, but with such a limited screentime. Madigan’s effective presence grows and is a delight to witness, give this one to her! It’ll make up for not giving it to her for Field of Dreams.
Should Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Will Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Did Win: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Best Actress in a Lead Role
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue *
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Commentary: Everyone I saw was really great. Tough call between Rose Byrne and Jessie Buckley, however. Byrne took me to places I’ve felt as a parent in such raw, genuine ways, it was the role of a lifetime for her. Buckley took me to places I hope to never feel as a parent in such raw, genuine ways, it was the role of a lifetime for her. If I factor in both the performances and their careers so far, my hunch is Buckley is likely to appear in this category in the future and I’d love Byrne to nab it now. Either way, I’m good with it, they’re both spectacular.
Should Win: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Will Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Did Win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Oh, la, la. Directors get their own little section here. Such divas.
Best Director
Hamnet, Chloé Zhao
Marty Supreme, Josh Safdie
One Battle after Another, Paul Thomas Anderson
Sentimental Value, Joachim Trier
Sinners, Ryan Coogler
Commentary: While I think writing splits these two frontrunners, Paul Thomas Anderson will eek out the directing award simply because of how deftly he orchestrates the many scenes of seemingly random chaos. Coogler definitely does this, too, but there’s more of that in One Battle after Another, and with more of those anxious feelings as well. And yet, I’d Chloé Zhao for Hamnet. Much like I give it the gold for costuming, here’s direction for various settings including a play and the audience witnessing - and in one of the most-tender moments ever captured on film - interacting with the play. She was nominated for directing and won for producing Nomadland in 2021 and I think her directing here is amazing.
Should Win: Hamnet
Will Win: One Battle after Another
Did Win: One Battle after Another
Who likes short films? We like short films! We also like long films. Here they are, paired up:
Best Documentary Short Film
All the Empty Rooms
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”
The Devil Is Busy
Perfectly a Strangeness
Read my deep dive from earlier this week:
Should Win: Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Will Win: Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Did Win: All the Empty Rooms
Best Documentary Feature Film
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting through Rock *
Mr. Nobody against Putin *
The Perfect Neighbor, Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee
Commentary: Only saw 3 of the 5 nominees, and every one I saw was superb. Part of me wants to give it to The Perfect Neighbor for the amazing film they were able to create out of 99% footage from PD body cams, PD precinct cameras, and courtroom cameras. Just epic filmmaking. But if I give an award to a doc for the way it’s made, I give it to The Alabama Solution for being mostly footage shot on smuggled burner phones in prison over a decade. A Sisyphean task and they nailed it, great movie.
Should Win: The Alabama Solution
Will Win: The Alabama Solution
Did Win: Mr. Nobody against Putin
Best Animated Short Film
Butterfly
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Retirement Plan
The Three Sisters
Read my deep dive from earlier this week:
Should Win: Retirement Plan
Will Win: Forevergreen
Did Win: The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Best Animated Feature Film
Arco *
Elio *
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain *
Zootopia 2 *
Commentary: My most uninformed category, but the one I saw is the one winner in my heart. It may have a new neck-and-neck race with Zootopia 2 that I haven’t heard of, but KPop Demon Hunters is so, so, so fun. And it’s good. More gold for KPop!
Should Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Did Win: KPop Demon Hunters
Best Live Action Short Film
Butcher’s Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva
Read my deep dive from earlier this week:
Should Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Will Win: Jane Austen’s Period Drama
Did Win: A tie! The first tie since 2013 and seventh tie overall! The Singers and Two People Exchanging Saliva
Best International Feature Film
Brazil, The Secret Agent
France, It Was Just an Accident *
Norway, Sentimental Value
Spain, Sirāt *
Tunisia, The Voice of Hind Rajab *
Commentary: This is often a category where the lone international feature film nominated for Best Picture wins here instead. But this year, there are two Best Picture contenders that are also in this category. They’re both great films. I think Sentimental Value will edge out The Secret Agent, because while both are ultimately about a snapshot deep dive into a family, one has an ending that will leave more people satisfied than the other, and sometimes that’s all it takes to remain memorable.
Should Win: Norway, Sentimental Value
Will Win: Norway, Sentimental Value
Did Win: Norway, Sentimental Value
Best Picture - MY Nominees! Ranked with 5-Star, 1-Word Reviews!
I saw 66 movies from 2025, here are my top ten…
10. Deep Cover | 4/5 “Improv!”
9. Presence | 4/5 “Theology!”
8. The Naked Gun: The New Version | 3.5/5 “Silhouettes!”
7. Final Destination: Bloodlines | 4/5 “Tony Todd!”
6. Predator: Badlands | 4.5/5 “Torso!”
5. One Battle After Another | 4.5/5 “Relentless!”
4. KPop Demon Hunters | 4/5 “Strategy!”
3. Weapons | 4.5/5 “BOO!”
2. Sinners | 5/5 “Conjure!”
1. Paddington in Peru | 5/5 “A Hard Stare.” That’s three words. If you want to say that oud loud to Paddington, feel free. But you risk receiving a hard stare in return.
Commentary: My Top 10 from 2025 is filled with pleasant surprises (Deep Cover, Presence, One Battle after Another), satisfying sequels (Final Destination: Bloodlines, Predator: Badlands, The Naked Gun: The New Version), and new family favorites (KPop Demon Hunters, Weapons, Sinners). And the one movie that hits all three categories? Paddington in Peru, Dear Reader. Great entry in a great trilogy. I need a new Paddington movie every 2-3 years forever, please!
Should Win: Paddington in Peru
Will Win: One Battle after Another
Did Win: One Battle after Another
Best Picture - ACTUAL Nominees! Ranked with 5-Star, 1-Word Reviews!
10. Frankenstein | 3.5/5 “Lightning!”
9. Train Dreams | 4/5 “Forest!”
8. The Secret Agent | 4/5 “Phonebooths!”
7. Sentimental Value | 4/5 “Apology!”
6. Marty Supreme | 4/5 “Arrogance!”
5. Bugonia | 4/5 “Explosive!”
4. Hamnet | 4/5 “Gutteral!”
3. F1: The Movie | 4.5/5 “Zzzooooom!”
2. One Battle After Another | 4.5/5 “Relentless!”
1. Sinners | 5/5 “Conjure!”
Frankenstein is the second-best “Frankenstein,” and that’s an achievement. Train Dreams is beautiful and Joel Edgerton is great but I have an aversion to films that rely on narration, that’s my bias. The Secret Agent is compelling and the ending wasn’t as satisfying as I’d hoped, even if that’s the thematic point.
Sentimental Value is my pick for Best International Film and I think it will win. Marty Supreme is a movie I liked a lot with a lead character I disliked a lot. Bugonia was a delightful two hours of a string of “What did I just watch?!” moments.
Hamnet really surprised me. I didn’t expect I’d enjoy it as much as I did, but it’s superb. Great casting, and the buildup makes the final extended scene intensely gripping. Skipping a scene or two, I think this could make a good family movie, if I can get my kids to sit through the whole thing. F1: The Movie really surprised me, too. I’m not a race fan but I like good cinematography and this looked promising. Caught a late show of the last showing of this in my area and the late night was worth it. Again, could be a good family movie if everyone will make the time commitment. Both are great movies, if not the ultimate winner.
One Battle after Another just has that Best Picture feel all throughout. Gorgeous to watch, relentlessly engaging pace. Tragically-relevant themes and topics, top-notch performances. Humor and horror, silly and violent, prescient and irreverent. It works and if it wins, I won’t be surprised or disappointed.
I may be a little disappointed if Sinners doesn't win. It was so fun and fresh and for the family! Well, not every family. But my family all really liked it. Always nice when your whole family watched and enjoyed the Best Picture! None of them knew anything about it besides me putting in our brand-new 4K UHD disc and saying, “Trust me.” Glad they did, because it’s the movie they’ve talked about the most in our home this year. Well, except KPop Demon Hunters. And that silhouette scene in The Naked Gun: The New Version. A win for Sinners is a win for fresh storytelling!
Should Win: Sinners
Will Win: One Battle after Another
Did Win: One Battle after Another
Your turn!
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Leave a comment with your picks, join me for a live chat on Substack tonight during the Oscars, subscribe before the end of the broadcast as your giveaway entry, and thank you for your support, Dear Reader!